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ABSTRACT The progenitor of SN 2023ixf was an ∼104.8 to $$10^{5.0}\, \text{L}_\odot$$ star (∼9 to $$14\, \text{M}_\odot$$ at birth) obscured by a dusty $$\dot{M} \simeq 10^{-5}\, \text{M}_\odot \rm \, yr^{-1}$$ wind with a visual optical depth of τV ≃ 13. This is required by the progenitor spectral energy distribution, the post-SN X-ray and H α luminosities, and the X-ray column density estimates. In Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) data spanning 5600 to 400 d before the supernova (SN), there is no evidence for optical variability at the level of $$\sim 10^3\, \text{L}_\odot$$ in R band, roughly three times the predicted luminosity of the obscured progenitor. This constrains direct observation of any pre-SN optical outbursts where there are LBT observations. However, models of the effects of any pre-SN outburst on the dusty wind show that an outburst of essentially any duration exceeding ∼5 times the luminosity of the progenitor would have detectable effects on the dust optical depth for decades. While the dust obscuration here is high, all red supergiants have dusty winds, and the destruction (or formation) of dust by even short-lived transients will always have long-term effects on the observed brightness of the star because changes in the dust optical depths after a luminous transient occur very slowly. 

Abstract We present the first estimate of the Galactic nova rate based on optical transient surveys covering the entire sky. Using data from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) and Gaia—the only two all-sky surveys to report classical nova candidates—we find 39 confirmed Galactic novae and 7 additional unconfirmed candidates discovered from 2019 to 2021, yielding a nova discovery rate of ≈14 yr⁻¹. Using accurate Galactic stellar mass models and three-dimensional dust maps and incorporating realistic nova light curves, we have built a sophisticated Galactic nova model to estimate the fraction of Galactic novae discovered by these surveys over this time period. The observing capabilities of each survey are distinct: the high cadence of ASAS-SN makes it sensitive to fast novae, while the broad observing filter and high spatial resolution of Gaia make it more sensitive to highly reddened novae across the entire Galactic plane and bulge. Despite these differences, we find that ASAS-SN and Gaia give consistent Galactic nova rates, with a final joint nova rate of 26 ± 5 yr⁻¹. This inferred nova rate is substantially lower than found by many other recent studies. Critically assessing the systematic uncertainties in the Galactic nova rate, we argue that the role of faint, fast-fading novae has likely been overestimated, but that subtle details in the operation of transient alert pipelines can have large, sometimes unappreciated effects on transient recovery efficiency. Our predicted nova rate can be directly tested with forthcoming red/near-infrared transient surveys in the southern hemisphere.